[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281750
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-281845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...MIDDLE TO ERN TN...FAR NRN AL...FAR NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281750Z - 281845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN MIDDLE AND ERN TN SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ALONG AND A
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN MIDDLE TO ERN
TN FROM EAST OF NASHVILLE TN NEWD TO THE KY STATE-LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F.
RESULTANT INSTABILITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS
MIDDLE TO ERN TN. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A 60
TO 70 KT JET MAX NEAR 700 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT NASHVILLE
TN SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65 TO 70 KT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE
1 KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORM COVERAGE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY AS SFC-BASED
CELLS CURRENTLY OVER NCNTRL MS MOVE INTO MIDDLE AND ERN TN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36268356 35118481 34888678 35158760 36638560 36938458
            36268356



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