[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280930
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-281100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0430 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280930Z - 281100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST
EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE/CENTRAL KENTUCKY BORDER AREA
THROUGH 11-12Z.  HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST
NORTHEAST OF WW 106 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SPEED MAXIMUM MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS THE
FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON IT.  THIS BOUNDARY IS ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO THE KENTUCKY BLUEGRASS...AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER.  HOWEVER...A RESIDUAL POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT AT
LEAST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AS A RESULT...STORM
INTENSITY TRENDS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL SEEM LIKELY TO
DIMINISH WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106.  BUT THE POTENTIALLY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE NORTH OF NASHVILLE TN...INTO THE
HOPKINSVILLE AND BOWLING GREEN AREAS OF KENTUCKY BETWEEN NOW AND
11-12Z.

..KERR/MEAD.. 04/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36928799 37378732 37818666 38678590 38918506 38918442
            38068361 37048395 36508558 36418777 36928799



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