[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031422
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-031545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031422Z - 031545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATE
THIS MORNING WILL POSE A MARGINAL WIND AND SUB-SEVERE HAIL THREAT
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. SEVERE
THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AFTER INITIAL
MORNING ACTIVITY CLEARS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN IL AND TRACKING EWD TOWARD SRN IND IN WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
IL/IND THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST NOW
ENTERING THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KY INTO
MIDDLE TN. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS IL/IND SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST MUCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG WILL LEND TO A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS. LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE NOTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL DESPITE 50+
KT LLJ NOTED AROUND 1 KFT IN AREA WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES. A
SPORADIC STRONGER GUST COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGEST CELLS HOWEVER GIVEN
FAIRLY QUICK STORM MOTION TO THE E/NE.

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37468868 37798792 38148736 38508677 38758615 38658556
            38338517 37898516 37118544 36378598 35888638 35718681
            35678764 35998872 36338923 37018911 37468868



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