[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180031
KYZ000-TNZ000-180130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INTO S-CNTRL KY / NRN MIDDLE AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...565...

VALID 180031Z - 180130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563...565...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY AN ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO
PERHAPS A TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED CELLULAR ELEMENTS EXHIBITING SOME WEAK SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE/ROTATION AS INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MOVE EWD INTO S-CNTRL KY
AND NRN MIDDLE TN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN PV ANOMALY
MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA AND NEWD TOWARDS THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS THIS OCCURS...A CORRESPONDING SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IN THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP IS ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONALLY...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/18
BNA RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER UPDRAFT VIGOR.  DESPITE THESE
CONCERNS...THE LOW-MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS VERY STRONG /50-70
KT H85-H7 FLOW/ AND WILL SUPPORT A LEAST SOME ISOLATED DMGG WIND
POTENTIAL PRIMARILY WITH LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS...AND
PERHAPS THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS.

FARTHER S ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCHES...THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE EWD INTO MIDDLE TN MAY YIELD AN
ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  IF THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY...A
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED.

..SMITH.. 11/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35628969 36678671 37768489 38728413 38568354 36618498
            36238529 35558651 35298908 35628969


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