[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 172146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172146
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-172315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA...CNTRL/WRN KY...NWRN TN...FAR NERN
AR...FAR SERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...565...

VALID 172146Z - 172315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563...565...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 563
AND 565.

DISCUSSION...THE WIDTH OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR PRECEDING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS LARGEST OVER SWRN/S-CNTRL KY AND SWD. WITHIN THIS
AREA...A SUPERCELL CLUSTER STRETCHING FROM MARSHALL COUNTY TO SRN
HOPKINS COUNTY KY WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TOWARD
AREAS NEAR AND N OF BOWLING GREEN. THIS ACTIVITY POSES THE GREATEST
SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...THE WARM SECTOR FAVORING SEVERE STORMS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY NARROW NWD INTO SRN INDIANA. HOWEVER...VERY
STRONG ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN QLCS-MODE SVR STORMS
WITH DMGG WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET -- I.E. PRECEDING PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 6 MB PER 2 HOURS AND
SUCCEEDING RISES AROUND 6 MB PER 2 HOURS. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES.
FARTHER S INTO THE MID SOUTH...THE CONSOLIDATING FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO DESPITE THE
PAUCITY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/MID-LEVEL ASCENT. WHILE CONVECTION MAY
BE ISOLATED INTO NWRN TN AND FAR NERN AR...STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP
SHEAR AMIDST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A SVR
THREAT.

..COHEN.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35849095 36348960 37138842 37818783 38508714 38748558
            38388494 37278533 36858591 36588756 36108825 35658964
            35849095


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