[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311733 COR
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-311900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MI...WRN OH...FAR SE IND...CNTRL/ERN KY...N
CNTRL TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311733Z - 311900Z

CORRECTED FOR AFFECTED AREA

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOOSELY ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AREA OF
INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
ACROSS SE MI/WRN OHIO INTO PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN KY HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 20-40 KTS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD
BE ACROSS FAR SW MI /WHERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING/ INTO PARTS
OF IND AND OHIO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER THAN
FURTHER SOUTH INTO KY/TN. HOWEVER...A REMNANT MCV EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY SERVE TO
FOCUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KY
DESPITE WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP TODAY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...
GRR...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   35778565 35868653 36028704 36568743 37298738 37958704
            40308554 42028418 43628266 43478203 42768135 41478167
            39918246 37318371 36258449 35798517 35778565


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