[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211942
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...MO BOOTHEEL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211942Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS ERN AR
AND NRN MS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON WITH LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.

DISCUSSION...NRN SEGMENT OF MCS MOVING ACROSS AR HAS FRAGMENTED
ACROSS CNTRL AR...AND IS PROGRESSING NEARLY DUE EWD ACROSS ERN AR.
ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN MS. VWP
DATA FROM NQA SHOWS FAVORABLY BACKED SFC WINDS WITH VEERING IN THE
0-1 KM LAYER...RESULTING IN 0-1 SRH NEAR 150 M^2 S^-2.
ADDITIONALLY...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
HEATING UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
STORMS. A WW WILL BE COORDINATED SOON.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34618819 34248842 33898919 33908975 34119067 34319105
            35039136 35659128 36099119 36379068 36689007 36438903
            36278799 34618819

WWWW
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