[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue May 21 14:13:47 CDT 2013

ACUS11 KWNS 211913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211912
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-212015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211912Z - 212015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...QLCS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY HAS SHOWN RECENT
SIGNS OF ORGANIZING/INTENSIFYING. A DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE AS IT CONTINUES
PROGRESSING EWD. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
QLCS DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL KY...WITH SEVERAL SVR
GUSTS NOTED AROUND THE NASHVILLE AREA RECENTLY. ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED FARTHER N INTO PORTIONS OF KY. STRONG
HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LINE WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THUS...A DMGG WIND THREAT
MAY CONTINUE E INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY AND MIDDLE/ERN
TN...LIKELY REQUIRING A WW.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37348303 36248338 35718389 35548440 35458530 35758559
            36958554 37918559 38148453 38158365 37948312 37348303

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