[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue May 21 11:27:54 CDT 2013

ACUS11 KWNS 211627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211627
KYZ000-TNZ000-211730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...SRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211627Z - 211730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS OVER WRN TN SHOULD AT LEAST
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OR POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN WITH EWD
PROGRESSION INTO MIDDLE TN AND SRN KY. WITH STRONG
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SFC
BASED STORMS...A THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS COULD EVOLVE.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS
POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM CKV TO 40 S MKL AS OF 1615Z. ALTHOUGH
ASCENT/NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONGLY FOCUSED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LINE...SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONG CELLS WERE NOTED. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES
NEAR 2000 J/KG...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED W-E FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL-MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY EVOLVE OUT OF THIS LINE...AS SFC OBS
ARE NEARING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 80S F PER MODIFIED
12Z BNA SOUNDING...BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION AND
SUBSEQUENT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY DMGG WIND THREAT THAT MAY
EVOLVE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35038683 35038752 35088817 36398735 36948711 37168579
            37078461 36978432 36198425 35028516 35038683

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