[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191943
TNZ000-ALZ000-192115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN THROUGH NERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191943Z - 192115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WWD AND SWWD THROUGH MIDDLE
TN AND NERN AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONGER ACTIVITY
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING MULTICELL
STORMS EXTENDS FROM NRN GA THROUGH ERN MIDDLE TN. WEST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ALONG THE ERN
FRINGE OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH MLCAPE AROUND
3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT STRONGER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT INTO THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
WHILE SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WSWWD PROPAGATION OF THE
STORMS...WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND AT LEAST MODEST CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR RAPID WWD DEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT LEAST
SLOWLY WWD AND SWWD THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME NWWD BACKBUILDING MIGHT
ALSO OCCUR. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL/KERR.. 05/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36208632 35608585 34448553 34038594 34298659 35298673
            36018676 36208632

WWWW
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