[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241648
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-241845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241648Z - 241845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE CHANCES FOR RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL INCREASE ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL OF 1 INCH OR GREATER
IN DIAMETER PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEPENING SFC LOW
TRACKING EAST FROM MO BOOTHEEL WITH A NARROW WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM WRN TN TO MIDDLE TN/KY
BORDER AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF
INTENSE MID/UPR JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING STATIC
STABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH
SATURATION IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. A RESULTING PLUME OF
MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT FROM WRN KY/TN TO MIDDLE TN/KY BORDER
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ROOTED IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEPNESS OF MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CLUSTERS OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
PERSISTENT TSTMS WITH OCCASIONALLY BETTER ORGANIZED/ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. MARGINAL CAPE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING TO AID SOME HAIL PRODUCTION WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CORES. CURRENT SPC HAIL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
LITTLE CHANCE EXISTS FOR HAIL SIZES LARGER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
AND...GIVEN DECOUPLED/ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A WATCH
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN/HART.. 03/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35768804 36498822 37728803 38208754 37718611 36868554
            36378552 35708611 35428715 35768804


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