[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280917
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-281015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0417 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...

VALID 280917Z - 281015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AT 40 KT OVER SERN MO...AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NERN AR DURING THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 383 FOR ADDITIONAL WW.

DISCUSSION...MCS COLD POOL CONTINUES TO ELONGATE SEWD OVER SERN
MO...WITH GUST FRONT MOVING AT APROX 40 KT. DESPITE THE FAST MOVING
GUST FRONT...HI-RES RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NEW UPDRAFT GROWTH
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL HAS BEEN EFFICIENTLY
MAINTAINED. THUS...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES IN THE
SHORT-TERM AS THE MCS ENTERS NERN AR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
RESIDES OVER WRN TN...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND AS THE
MCS CROSSES THE MS RIVER LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES OVER CNTRL AR ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD...WHICH
COULD BEGIN TO MODIFY THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE E. IN
ADDITION...DOWNDRAFTS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER AS UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR IS MAINTAINED ABOVE THE GROUND
BY 20 KT WLY FLOW AT 1 KM AGL. ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW DOWNSTREAM FROM WW
383.

..GARNER.. 06/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34599026 35129320 36439299 36809045 36118781 34608878
            34599026



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