[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262354
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-270130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHEAST MO TO SOUTHERN
INDIANA/WESTERN TN AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...

VALID 262354Z - 270130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH PRIMARY
RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MO/IL
BORDER VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KY. THE MOST SUSTAINED/CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT
MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL/EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN KY...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN
TN.

DISCUSSION...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA ARE
FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
POOL THAT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA VIA AN EARLIER MCS. THE
SOUTHERNMOST STORMS ROUGHLY WITHIN 40-50 MILES OF THE OH RIVER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA ARE NEAR-SURFACE BASED IN
PROXIMITY TO A RESIDUAL WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS NEAR/ATOP THE SURFACE COLD
POOL...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE/DEGREE OF UPSCALE GROWTH WILL HINDER
THIS POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...PERIODIC BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING FROM FAR
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KY.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE-BASED CLUSTER OF STORMS /WITH
PERIPHERAL TRANSIENT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE/ WILL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD/POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE WITHIN A
WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2000-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO WEST-CENTRAL KY. DAMAGING
WINDS/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS BETWEEN I-55/I-57...WITH PERSISTENCE
INTO WESTERN KY /AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY WESTERN TN/ LIKELY.

..GUYER.. 06/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37858995 38378906 38368669 38288497 37408485 36808595
            36268898 37858995



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