[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302324
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-310130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302324Z - 310130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED...MARGINAL DMGG WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED /1/ TO THE N/E INVOF A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN MIDDLE TN INTO N-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL AL...AND /2/ TO
THE W BY THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS. THESE
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS LIE OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF AN MCV CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER NWRN TN/SWRN KY. MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE
TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE MCV...AS MANIFESTED BY THE
PRESENCE OF 25-30-KT WSWLY/S AND WLY/S IN THE 4-7-KM LAYER PER
GWX...HTX...AND OHX VWP DATA. DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FLOW -- AIDED BY MODEST VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT IN
THE LOW LEVELS -- MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. THIS WOULD BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION NEAR/JUST
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEAR/E OF THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF DMGG WINDS
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...AIDED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES
WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES PER GPS DATA.

STATIC STABILITY PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES /1/ TO THE N OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OWING TO THETA-E DEFICITS ACCOMPANYING MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/STRATIFORM PRECTIPIATION.../2/ TO THE E OF
THIS FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 60S BENEATH A
DEEPER LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS YIELDS A FAIRLY NARROW SPATIAL
CORRIDOR OF ANY SUCH MARGINAL DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL...WHOSE TEMPORAL
DURATION WILL BE CURTAILED BY THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION. ALSO...WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LARGELY MINIMIZE ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 07/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33168890 33968836 35498792 35368675 34028630 33058693
            32888808 33168890



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