[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131653
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-131900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MID/ERN TN...CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131653Z - 131900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MID/ERN TN
AND CNTRL KY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE SVR WIND/HAIL AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CNTRL KY PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING QUICKLY WWD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW...GENERALLY FROM -12 TO -15 DEG C AT 500 MB...ATOP A RELATIVELY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOSTER AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME TRANSIENT ROTATION AS THE
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA COINCIDENT WITH DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING.

EVEN WITH THE FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST /GENERALLY
AOB 1000 J PER KG/ AND A MULTICELL MODE APPEARS MOST LIKELY. AS
SUCH...A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR
WIND/HAIL BUT A LARGE-SCALE...LONG-DURATION THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS...TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35568381 35098496 35078544 35198597 35438629 36708640
            37878601 38348564 38668519 38718445 38598398 38228347
            37688334 36498327 35568381


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