[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101804
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-101930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...KY...NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101804Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
IND...CNTRL AND WRN KY AND NRN TN. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ORGANIZATION OCCURS.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN IND
ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE IN
THE 3000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED TO ABOUT 7.5 C/KM. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE STRONGER CELLS GUST OUT. REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS SHOW WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY ISOLATED.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37488350 37898318 38428332 38608379 38678479 38678552
            38628626 38498701 38108750 37728803 37298858 36958863
            36738825 36268701 35828637 35858582 36398508 36918418
            37488350


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