[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011656
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-011900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT MON JUL 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN KY AND MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011656Z - 011900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE SOME IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ERN TN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.  A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR HAIL...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH
LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTED THE LEADING EDGE OF APPARENTLY STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE WRN-MIDDLE TN MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF TSTMS FROM NW OF KCSV TO FAR NERN AL/NWRN
GA.  SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN TO CENTRAL AND ERN KY HAS
BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR CONVECTION TO FORM WITHIN A NOW MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  DESPITE WEAKER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS /SFC-2 KM AGL/ PER AREA WSR-88D VAD WIND
DATA...STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION.
IF STORM COVERAGE BECOMES GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN
A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 07/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36268510 37158473 38138439 38658365 38398259 37308224
            36358300 35198437 35018475 35058573 36268510


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