[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301343
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-301445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND ERN EXTENT OF MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...16...18...

VALID 301343Z - 301445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
14...16...18...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES THIS
MORNING FROM SERN MS...ACROSS MUCH OF SRN...CENTRAL AND NERN
AL...AND INTO THE ERN EXTENT OF MIDDLE TN.  WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 14Z AS STORMS MOVE E OF THIS TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN
UNCAPPED AND MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE BHM AND SLIDELL 12Z SOUNDINGS/. 60-65 KT
SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA AND BENEATH
STRENGTHENING SSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EXTENT OF THE
UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT.  MEANWHILE...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-500 M2/S2 PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BHM AND
SLIDELL.

IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED LEWPS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS IN AL TO
SERN MS...DISCRETE STORMS WITHIN CONFLUENT BANDS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH THESE DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
QLCS.

..PETERS.. 01/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
LIX...

LAT...LON   36138487 36128454 34858559 33618535 32188497 31768516
            31538625 31798644 31818689 31258744 31058835 30658847
            30688942 31158938 32168877 33268770 34888612 35428574
            36138487



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