[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 300732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300731
TNZ000-ALZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-300800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 300731Z - 300800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE AFFECTED
WFO/S IN NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...AT 0715Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QLCS
EXTENDING FROM WRN KY THROUGH WRN TN AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO WRN
MS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING EWD AT 35-40 KT...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
EMBEDDED CELLS AND LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS WERE MOVING NEWD AT 50-60
KT. TWO LONG-LIVED...POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE CURRENTLY /AS
OF 0715Z/ MERGING WITH THE EWD MOVING QLCS. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES E
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WSR-88D AT COLUMBUS MS ALREADY INDICATING
SLY WIND SPEEDS AROUND 70 KT AT 1 KM AGL.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT/.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE IN NERN MS AND PARTS OF AL WHERE
INHIBITION IS WEAKENING WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION PER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE.  THUS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...A TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 01/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33518818 34968803 35088719 36638608 36588466 35008555
            33388557 33268700 33378801 33518818



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