[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Jan 29 21:49:49 CST 2013

ACUS11 KWNS 300349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300349
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-300545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL/WRN MS...ERN AR...NERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

VALID 300349Z - 300545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE WARM
SECTOR BAND OF TSTMS ALONG THE MS RIVER. NRN PORTION OF THIS QLCS
SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD IN TN OVERNIGHT WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER HAS BEGUN TRANSITIONING TO AN
ACCELERATING QLCS...PRIMARILY N OF WW 10...REF MCD 0083. THIS QLCS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH A PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION S/SWWD INTO NERN LA. WHILE...UPSTREAM
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE SRN
PORTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN LA. WITH THESE PROCESSES
OCCURRING WITHIN AN IMMENSELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE NNE/SSW-ORIENTED QLCS.

THIS SHOULD TRANSITION A MIXED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS AS SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES EVOLVE INTO
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. 850-700 MB FLOW WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE
TN/MS BORDER LATITUDE NWD...SUGGESTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS TN. GREATEST RELATIVE TORNADO RISK SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG THE SRN PORTION /MS/ AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE
RELATIVELY LONGER OPPORTUNITY FOR MAINTAINING INGEST OF RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

..GRAMS.. 01/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31519057 33448882 35288699 36268649 36578665 36658860
            36448988 35809056 32499241 31689259 31519057

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