[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 300212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300211
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL/SRN AR...NRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

VALID 300211Z - 300345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN WW 10 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THREE PRIMARY CORRIDORS OF SEVERE THREAT HAVE DEVELOPED
WITHIN WW 10 AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. ONE...A QLCS ALONG A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL AR TO ERN TX. TWO...A BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE
WARM SECTOR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AR TO NRN LA. PLEASE REFER TO MCD 0080
FOR DISCUSSION REGARDING THE THIRD CORRIDOR JUST E OF THE MS RIVER.

00Z LZK/SHV/LCH RAOBS ALL SAMPLED SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT PARCELS WITH
PW VALUES JUST OVER 1.50 INCHES. THIS BUOYANCY IS FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN VERY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
NOTED IN RAOBS AND RECENT VWP DATA. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO
BE GREATEST WITH THE SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO ERN AR TO NERN LA THROUGH 04Z. FARTHER
WEST...PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
WITHIN THE QLCS.

..GRAMS.. 01/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   36379108 36399051 36198978 34969013 33049072 31519170
            31499303 31799458 32129464 33319409 34539312 35359206
            36379108


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