[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292237
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-300100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292237Z - 300100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TO CNTRL LA
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. TORNADOES /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FED BY UPSTREAM PW VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALL FAVORABLY
INCREASE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP. SOME
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH APPEARING LIKELY TOO SLOW /BETWEEN 03-06Z/. IT
APPEARS MORE PROBABLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL
OCCUR BY THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34979138 35159032 35038998 33999000 32889000 31909034
            31579072 31449119 31429158 31579236 32039278 32669263
            33549227 34979138


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