[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 140000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140000
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN AL THROUGH NWRN GA...ERN TN AND
EXTREME SERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 140000Z - 140200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CNTRL THROUGH
NE AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN AND EXTREME SERN KY. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MID EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING AN EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
MESO-VORTICES EXTENDS FROM SERN KY...ERN MIDDLE TN INTO NERN AND
CNTRL AL. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. THE WARM SECTOR
REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY WITH
NRN EXTENT INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS REMAIN EMBEDDED IN WIND PROFILES WITH 60 KT 0-6
KM SHEAR AND 300+ M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. THE NRN END OF THE LINE IS APPROACHING THE ERN
EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS ERN
TN. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS AL THE MOIST CORRIDOR IS WIDER...BUT TREND
WILL BE FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HODOGRAPH SIZE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
WITH TIME AS THE LLJ SHIFTS NWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. NET
RESULT IS THAT WHILE SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO NEXT 2-3 HOURS...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE
FOR THE THREAT TO DECREASE WITH TIME.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 01/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33088688 35438536 36838447 37058412 36248402 33038574
            33088688


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