[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132046
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...ERN MS...NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132046Z - 132245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE...BUT ISOLATED STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO ERN MS AND NWRN AL. RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND
MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA...DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD
PROGRESSING 500 MB SPEED MAX /ALSO EVIDENT AT 700 MB/ IS LIKELY
AIDING THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT...A FEW STRONG TSTM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO. OVERALL...COVERAGE OF STRONG
STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/BUNTING.. 01/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   37088636 35828741 33778864 32608929 32258911 32438816
            33568720 34048681 36728527 37328528 37088636



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