[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131611
TNZ000-131745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131611Z - 131745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WHILE STRONG/SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED
BASIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...ANY
SUCH POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL. NO WATCH IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING BOW ECHO HAS RECENTLY
EVOLVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TN...ROUGHLY 50 MILES WSW OF
NASHVILLE/BNA AS OF 16Z. THIS STORM IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF SLOW
EASTWARD-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FAVORING THE INTERSECTION OF A
EARLIER /ROUGHLY WSW-ENE ORIENTED/ CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ATOP A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AS PER A MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
NASHVILLE. WHILE STRONG/POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /30-50 KT
1-3 KM PER KOHX WSR-88D VWP/...ANY SUCH POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOCALIZED/MARGINAL IN NATURE GIVEN THE COOL/STABLE NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

..GUYER/HART.. 01/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35458783 36188756 36608651 36418560 35908542 35418619
            35458783


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