[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190047
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN AND EXTREME SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190047Z - 190215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN AND NWRN MS EARLY THIS
EVENING. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW
EAST OF WW 36 AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH ERN AR AT 40-45 KT.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WRN TN AND NWRN
MS...BUT STORMS ARE MOVING EAST OF THETA-E AXIS AND INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY
WIDESPREAD RAIN. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WHERE THE LLJ HAS INCREASED TO 60+ KT IN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS
AND MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS IN CNTRL AR AND EXTREME SERN MO HAVE REPORTED
CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 42 KT. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34519090 35329047 36228992 36778952 36598909 34139001
            34519090



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