[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092128
KYZ000-TNZ000-092300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CDT FRI AUG 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...NRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092128Z - 092300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SMALL BOW ECHO LOCATED OVER WRN KY WILL MOVE EWD INTO
CNTRL KY...AND PERHAPS NRN MIDDLE TN...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THOUGH A WW DOES NOT APPEAR IMMEDIATELY NECESSARY...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS
SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM ROUGHLY ERN KY INTO NERN AR. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT HAVE
BOOSTED MLCAPE VALUES TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BOW ECHO OVER
WRN KY...WHICH IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV
LOCATED OVER SERN MO. MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW NEAR 30 KT WILL SUPPORT
FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE BOW INTO CNTRL KY /AND PERHAPS NRN MIDDLE
TN/ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE BOW CAN CONTINUE
TO GROW UPSCALE...THEN THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD INCREASE AND COULD NECESSITATE A WW. OTHERWISE...WIND THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOCALIZED TO SUPPORT WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GARNER/GOSS.. 08/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37278794 37648748 38078527 36978501 36338550 36598751
            37278794


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