[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280138
TNZ000-KYZ000-280245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MIDDLE TN...FAR SWRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280138Z - 280245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROADER CLUSTER OF TSTMS. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PRESENCE OF A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY
IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADIC/DMGG
WIND POTENTIAL. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED WITHIN WAA
REGIME N OF A WARM FRONT PROTRUDING EWD/SEWD OUT OF A SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR MEM. SFC OBS AND THE 28/00Z BNA SOUNDING SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CONVECTION...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT BOTH TORNADIC AND DMGG WIND POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS ROOTED
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS WILL AT LEAST HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BUT WW ISSUANCE WILL
LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED ATTM.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 04/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36228620 35968739 35798841 35798903 36128920 36688859
            36818784 36858707 36818659 36618613 36228620


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