[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Sat Apr 27 20:11:10 CDT 2013

ACUS11 KWNS 280110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280110
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

VALID 280110Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 141 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 161 NOW APPEAR TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...BUT A TORNADO THREAT MAY STILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AREAS S OF TORNADO WATCH 161 WILL BE MONITORED FOR
TSTMS EVOLVING SEWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL OFFICES
MAY CLEAR COUNTIES FROM THE WW IN THE WAKE OF A SFC LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION.

DISCUSSION...TWO PRIMARY SEMI-DISCRETE CLUSTERS ARE APPARENT IN
LATEST RADAR IMAGES WITHIN WRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH
161...OCCURRING INVOF A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR MEM...AND AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO S-CNTRL AR. A SUPERCELL THAT MOVED
ACROSS E-CNTRL AR HAS TURNED RIGHT AND UNDERGONE SEVERAL
INTERACTIONS WITH SMALL FEEDER CELLS AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARDS NWRN
MS...WHILE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITING FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SFC WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF THE
WARM FRONT...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG FLOW ABOVE THE SFC
COULD MAINTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVELY MOIST /DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S
F/...NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...YIELDING ESTIMATED MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
750 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...AS WELL AS DMGG WINDS WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT EVOLVE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 04/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34058843 33568930 33439019 33609120 34239154 35689053
            35818975 35958861 35948815 35538786 34058843

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