[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281836
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-282030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN THROUGH CNTRL NC AND CNTRL THROUGH ERN
VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281836Z - 282030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE TN
VALLEY THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING FROM PORTIONS OF THE
TN VALLEY THROUGH NC AND SRN/ERN VA...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ONLY LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB
1000 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES
WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR /AOB 30 KT/ AND MODEST WLY FLOW THROUGH 6 KM WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELL STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

..DIAL/HART.. 09/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36378311 36228102 37177934 38317801 38337659 37267659
            35417936 35078367 36378311



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