[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072044
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-072245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...NWRN
TN...NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072044Z - 072245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN HALF OF
WW630 AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO N-CNTRL AR ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AXES...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT PERHAPS OFFERED BY A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD/ESEWD
AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORTED BY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY
DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AMIDST INCREASING DEEP SHEAR...IN WHICH
CASE ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE E/SE OF
WW630. IF THIS OCCURS...SVR WIND/HAIL COULD AFFECT THE AREA...WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT INTO THIS EVENING AS FRONT-RELATED CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY APPROACHES THE AREA.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37998720 36698812 35928902 35649007 35959095 36799099
            37029078 37209033 37478997 37728974 37978944 38398869
            38398768 37998720



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