[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062329
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR TO SOUTHERN
IL/WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625...

VALID 062329Z - 070100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 625 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
IL/EXTREME SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN KY/FAR NORTHWEST TN THROUGH
00Z-01Z. OTHER SEVERE TSTMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE/RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 45 KT IN
VICINITY OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVERS TOWARD
WESTERN KY AS OF 2320Z. A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL/BUBBLE HIGH IS
READILY EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH
WELL-ORGANIZED/ASYMMETRICAL CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDE A REAR-INFLOW
JET/NORTH-END VORTEX PER RADAR DATA.

GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS WESTERN KY/EXTREME SOUTHERN/FAR NORTHWEST
TN WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /2000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/.
HOWEVER...POST-SUNSET BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING TREND TOWARD
01Z. AS SUCH...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WW 625...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IN
THE FORM OF SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EDGE OF COLD POOL ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR.

..GUYER.. 09/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   38488956 38398900 37608787 36668688 36088827 36119354
            36499414 36999386 36949017 38488956



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