[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052231
KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TN TO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 620...621...

VALID 052231Z - 060000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
620...621...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN TN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS
EASTERN KY. SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 620/621 CONTINUE. ALSO MONITORING
FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH /40 PERCENT PROBABILITY/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TN/FAR EASTERN AR/FAR NORTHERN MS...ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A NEW
WATCH IS UNCLEAR AND/OR LOCAL WFO EXTENSION/S MAY BE MORE PRUDENT.

DISCUSSION...WITH A SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO-HIGH NOTED ALONG THE OH
RIVER VICINITY...AN EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SQUALL
LINE CONTINUES TO SLOW BUT STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TN. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED AND MORE
VIGOROUS TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE MO
BOOTHEEL/NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN AS OF 2215Z.

SIMILAR TO CURRENT TRENDS...THE STRONGEST TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AR AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN TN AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MS/NORTHWEST AL. HERE...THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/UNSTABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S F AND MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS DERIVED WINDS FORM
OHX/PAH/HPX SAMPLE A STEADY INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
CONGEAL/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIOR TO EVENTUAL
POST-SUNSET COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A PROBABLE DIMINISHING
INTENSITY TREND.

..GUYER.. 09/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35329114 36119028 36618798 36888600 37868472 38458414
            38408351 37068366 36038583 34988883 35329114



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