[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030013
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NWRN AL...FAR ERN AR...FAR SWRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 609...

VALID 030013Z - 030115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 609 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL AS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE
ACROSS NRN MS AND SWRN TN IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 100
M2/S2. SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ARE
STILL MOSTLY SLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
VAD WIND PROFILE FROM GWX CORRELATES THIS WELL WITH 0-1 KM SRH
BETWEEN 150 AND 200 J/KG. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NWRN MS MAY BEGIN
TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS STILL SHOW MORE OF MULTICELL CLUSTER...SUGGESTING UPSCALE
GROWTH/ORGANIZATION INTO A LINEAR MCS MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

..MOSIER.. 09/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33379098 35419069 35428698 33368736 33379098


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