[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020056
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-020230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN THROUGH EXTREME SERN MO...WRN KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 603...605...

VALID 020056Z - 020230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 603...605...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY
FROM WRN TN...WRN KY AND SRN IND NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW ISSUANCE EAST
OF 605 INTO MIDDLE TN MAY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS
DICTATE OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES
MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN TN...WRN KY AND SRN IL. LATEST VWP FROM
PADUCAH SHOWS LLJ HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT NEAR 1 KM...LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH SIZE.
WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
HOURS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
DECREASE IN INTENSITIES MAY COMMENCE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE KY BORDER. SEVERE THREAT IN KY
MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT DUE TO PRESENCE OF STRONGER
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

..DIAL.. 09/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36028916 37208873 38288831 38388715 37578713 35938823
            36028916



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