[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301702
WVZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN MD...PARTS OF WV...ERN KY...WRN VA...FAR
ERN TN...FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 301702Z - 302200Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED NEAR-1-IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AMIDST AREAS OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WAS CENTERED OVER SWRN PA
AS OF 16Z...WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AS OF 15Z PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR AND WEST OF A TERTIARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
TRAILS SSWWD FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CHARLESTON WV VWP DATA INDICATE 20-45 KT OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPRECIABLE MOUNTAIN-RANGE ORTHOGONAL
COMPONENT. WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES REACHING NEAR 1 IN/HR...AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN
SNOWFALL RATES IS ANTICIPATED IN CONCERT WITH THE LOW/S FILLING
PROCESS AND WEAKENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS. SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE HIGHEST FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT...WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GREATEST DEPTH OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS AMONGST HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
EXPERIMENT SPC SSEO GUIDANCE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-30 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR...STRONGEST OVER RIDGE TOPS. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY SLACKENS AROUND
WEAKENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY.

..COHEN.. 10/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   38387960 37118075 36278170 35488296 35368349 35438388
            35718382 35988309 36318248 36478243 36698257 36728281
            37038308 37738235 39188041 39647950 39497912 38387960



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather