[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180107
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-180200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 180107Z - 180200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS NOW CROSSING THE MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY POSE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  NEW WW WILL BE
NEEDED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING STORMS ARE CROSSING THE MS RIVER ATTM...WITH
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LINE OF CONVECTION POSING TORNADO
RISK ATTM.

AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH ERN EXTENT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG FORCING -- INDICATED BY
PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG AND JUST E OF THE MS
VALLEY -- EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 10/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34818770 34918906 35298941 36668855 36718695 34818770


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