[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141222
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY THROUGH WRN MIDDLE TN INTO NERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141222Z - 141345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WRN
KY...WRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN MS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE A SLIGHT BUT LIKELY TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AND A FEW ORGANIZED STRUCTURES HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN OBSERVED. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES FROM NRN MS INTO WRN MIDDLE TN AND SWRN
KY. ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW WITH NO LIGHTNING INDICATED AND IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MEAGER
INSTABILITY. RAPID REFRESH PFCS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG. THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 50+ KT LLJ SUPPORTING LARGE
HODOGRAPHS. LEWP STRUCTURES AND ROTATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN LINE
SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH SWRN KY AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. INSTABILITY IS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH ERN EXTENT
TOWARD MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY WHERE SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE U.S. SEABOARD HAVE MAINTAINED SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. NASHVILLE 12Z RAOB INDICATED VIRTUALLY
NO CAPE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35248895 36128830 37088821 37348736 36328724 34358863
            34488934 35248895



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