[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311938
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-312045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...

VALID 311938Z - 312045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL WILL
CONTINUE EWD...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE
EDGE OF THE WW BY 2030Z. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WW328
IN NERN MS.

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN MCV
FEATURE OVER NWRN MS...AND IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM PER
MESOANALYSIS/ IN ADVANCE OF THE COMPLEX MAY MAINTAIN A DMGG WIND
THREAT...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN AREA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN MS. FARTHER E INTO AL...THE AIR MASS IS
LESS STABLE OWING TO A RAIN COOLED AIR MASS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRAVERSES INTO
AL. HOWEVER...A REMNANT MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM YESTERDAY STILL
EXISTS...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER DEW POINT VALUES INTO CNTRL/NRN AL.
AS SUCH...A WEAKENING TREND IN THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS
IT PROGRESSES INTO AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..HURLBUT.. 05/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35248835 34238799 33018822 32628904 32459021 32729093
            33139122 34399088 35489029 36308956 36358834 35248835



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