[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311856
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-312000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...WRN/CNTRL KY...SRN IL...SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311856Z - 312000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SHOULD STORMS
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...DMGG WINDS AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN MCV OVER SRN IL IS CONTINUING EWD...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE...AND IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LARGELY DUE TO MARGINAL DEW POINT VALUES IN
THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER TO MID 60S VALUES WERE NOTED IN SRN IL
AND ERN MO. GIVEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING
COMPLEX TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE AS SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND
POTENTIALLY WEAK SUPERCELLS DEVELOP...GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY INVOF A WARM FRONT ACROSS
SRN IL/IND AND CNTRL KY. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY HINDER A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36018960 36069029 36668977 37358857 38198812 38678728
            39088701 39098580 37898465 37248452 36678509 36768649
            36838814 36608819 36578940 36018960


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