[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue May 29 15:40:32 CDT 2012

ACUS11 KWNS 292040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292039
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...FAR SRN IND...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292039Z - 292215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
SRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
THE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF PADUCAH KY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF SHORTWAVE AND
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN KY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70 F. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -12 C WILL ALSO MAKE HAIL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IF
DESTABILIZATION CAN CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38168709 36818844 36268898 35818906 35468865 35448807
            36298714 37468619 37998614 38168709

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