[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011733
KYZ000-TNZ000-011930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011733Z - 011930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND/HAIL ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 1630Z IS INDICATIVE OF
AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TO EASTERN TN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY/NORTHEAST AL. CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z NASHVILLE
OBSERVED SOUNDING CONFIRM THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CINH IS VIRTUALLY NIL
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 80F...WITH SPC OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS NOW INDICATIVE OF MLCAPE TO 2000-3000 J/KG.
FURTHERMORE...THE REGION IS BEING INFLUENCE BY THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY...AND ITS GRAZING INFLUENCE WILL BE A FACTOR FOR INCREASING
TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR AND SUSTAINABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY
RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   35248706 36818711 37878607 37058415 35628509 35088571
            35248706


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