[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312211
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-312315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312211Z - 312315Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING OVER NERN AR AND FAR WRN TN. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW. A WWD EXTENSION OF
WW 121 IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO SPARSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER WRN
TN/NERN AR.

VISIBLE SATELLITE/MOSAIC RADAR COMPOSITE LOOPS SHOW A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING TSTM 20 WSW POF...MOVING SSEWD TOWARDS NERN AR. THIS IS
OCCURRING ALONG A WEAKLY CONFLUENT AND SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT...WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT PERHAPS AIDED BY A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE TRANSLATING
SEWD WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF THE CNTRL CONUS UPPER RIDGE...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED. HOWEVER...BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS.

..ROGERS.. 03/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34799061 34909133 35749182 36399129 36649068 36359001
            35548992 34999002 34799061


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