[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242152
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-242245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MIDDLE TN...NORTH AL...FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242152Z - 242245Z

A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN...NORTH AL...AND FAR NWRN GA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANY INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS WILL BE SPORADIC AND MARGINAL...AND...AS
SUCH...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT WARRANTED.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER
PARTS OF SRN MIDDLE TN AND NORTH AL ALONG SEWD-MOVING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BANDS BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. POCKETS OF INSOLATION
AHEAD OF THE CONVERGENCE BANDS HAVE STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...YIELDING SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT MARGINAL/ SBCAPE SUCH THAT
DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE OF CONCERN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A
BAND OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER FLOW OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE CLOSED
LOW IS BEING MANIFESTED IN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILE
SAMPLED BY THE HUNTSVILLE VWP DATA...WHICH FEATURE 43 KT OF SFC-6-KM
BULK SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF MORE
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...THE
ABSENCE OF GREATER BUOYANCY WILL PREVENT A MORE ROBUST THREAT FROM
ENSUING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD CEASE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION COMMENCES.

..COHEN.. 03/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35678650 35658539 35038514 34458529 34048623 34188732
            34778786 35318734 35678650



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