[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232208
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND AND WRN/CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 232208Z - 232245Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY WITH AFFECTED WFOS FROM
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND INTO CENTRAL KY.

LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD FROM
WEST CENTRAL/SWRN IND THROUGH WEST CENTRAL KY TO NWRN AL.
ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WIND SHIFT HAS
EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN
AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J PER KG/.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE
MID MS VALLEY CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SERN MO/NERN AR AT
THIS TIME.  70-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS.

AT 22Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPER MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO CENTRAL KY.  GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND BACKED E/SELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SRN
IND INTO CENTRAL KY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..PETERS.. 03/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   39768669 39958487 38578483 37078498 36698506 36648714
            39078671 39768669



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