[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201904
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-202100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...CNTRL VA...FAR S-CNTRL WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201904Z - 202100Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE/INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
BRIEF NATURE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION WILL
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WV
SWD TO NC. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S...ERODING ANY INHIBITION AND RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATED
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM WHICH WILL AID IN
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
VERY WEAK /BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KT/ AND ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. FURTHER LIMITING ORGANIZATION AND
MAINTENANCE IS THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THEREFORE...SPORADIC EPISODES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MORE LIKELY SMALL HAIL WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. GIVEN LACK OF
ORGANIZATION AND PULSE-LIKE NATURE OF CONVECTION...A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN.. 03/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   38807933 38647975 37928030 36858134 36298189 36088206
            35628238 35388235 35278218 35208181 35178135 35218081
            35398012 35837931 36597877 37727830 37937826 38437819
            38747845 38887902 38807933



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