[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141856
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...FAR SRN IL...FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141856Z - 142100Z

A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN MO...FAR SRN IL...AND
FAR WRN KY. EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT LIMITS THE NEED
FOR A WW.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR HAS
KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONALLY... NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT ABOVE 700 MB. AS A RESULT...AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG EXISTS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...OWING TO THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT /LOWER
MARGINS FOR PERSISTENT STORMS/. CONSEQUENTLY...AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER.. 03/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36498957 36468989 36779024 37379029 38348999 38478939
            38178830 37268807 36548877 36498957



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