[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030118
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-030215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN / NRN AL / CNTRL MS / NERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...60...64...

VALID 030118Z - 030215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
59...60...64...CONTINUES.

ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHEST OVER SRN MIDDLE
TN AND OVER NRN AL THE NEXT FEW HOURS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER
SW OVER CNTRL MS AND NERN LA.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS /SOME
SUPERCELLULAR/ OVER E-CNTRL MS NEWD INTO NRN AL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE THAT WILL SOON BE OVERTAKEN BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE AREA.  THE JAN 00Z RAOB
FEATURED A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RELATIVELY MODEST LCL/S
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/.  ALTHOUGH
SURFACE SPREADS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER --OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING--
THE LLJ WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED E OVER AL NEWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT /NOT NEGATE/ TORNADO
POTENTIAL OVER CNTRL MS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS OVER THE
NERN LA/SWRN MS RELEGATED TO ISOLD DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER NE OVER NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN...CLUSTERS OF STORMS /SOME
SUPERCELLS/ ARE SITUATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN BMX 00Z RAOB --WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR AT KBMX AND KHTX
VAD/S SHOWING /300-500 0-1 KM SRH/.  GIVEN A SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK /FEATURING POSSIBLE
STRONG TORNADOES/ WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

..SMITH.. 03/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   33478705 31588885 31218982 31229270 31819249 34508763
            35988558 36298485 35368486 34188607 33478705



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