[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021958
TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NC AND NWRN SC...NRN GA...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021958Z - 022100Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
ORIENTED E-W ACROSS FAR NWRN SC...ARCING BACK TOWARDS THE NE ALONG
NEAR THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. A LONE WEAKENING
SUPERCELL WAS NOTED ON 1950Z RADAR IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS SWAIN
COUNTY NC. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

FARTHER S/W...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAVE ALLOWED AMPLE SFC HEATING TO
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF NRN GA AND ERN TN...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. WEAK ECHOES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ON RADAR RECENTLY AS WAA HAS INCREASED WITHIN A BROAD
LLJ. BACKGROUND FLOW FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS...WITH FFC VWP DATA SHOWING A STRONG CYCLONICALLY
CURVED HODOGRAPH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
GIVEN ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   35938244 35128280 34528329 34128403 34168495 34388535
            34778533 36438457 36638327 36518219 35938244


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