[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020940
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-021045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IND...CNTRL KY...NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020940Z - 021045Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WCNTRL KY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
BUT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.

A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WCNTRL KY JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT. MUCAPE VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH 40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CORES. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS ABOVE 700 MB
SUGGESTING THE CELLS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY WIND
DAMAGE THREAT MARGINAL. THE STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME
WEAKER EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CELLS MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37158440 38368618 38548712 38238751 37928754 37608735
            37318681 36928614 36348543 36058493 36338442 37158440



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